India could lose 2 million tech jobs by 2031, report warns

India faces a critical juncture as artificial intelligence transforms its massive technology sector, with the government’s policy think tank NITI Aayog projecting both significant job displacement and unprecedented opportunities in a comprehensive new report released today.

The “Roadmap for Job Creation in the AI Economy,” unveiled by NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, warns that India’s $245 billion technology and customer experience sectors could lose up to 2 million jobs by 2031 without swift intervention. However, the report also highlights the potential for creating 4 million new AI-enabled positions over the next five years if the country adopts strategic reskilling initiatives.

National AI Talent Mission Proposed

To address this challenge, NITI Aayog has proposed launching a National AI Talent Mission aimed at transforming India into the global AI workforce capital. The initiative would build on India’s existing strengths, including over 9 million technology and customer experience professionals and what officials describe as the world’s largest pool of young digital talent.

“India’s strength lies in its people,” said Subrahmanyam during the report’s release. “With over 9 million technology and customer experience professionals, and the world’s largest pool of young digital talent, we have both the scale and ambition. What we need now is urgency, vision, and coordination”.

​The proposed mission rests on three key pillars: embedding AI literacy across educational institutions from schools to universities, creating a national reskilling engine for technology workers, and positioning India as a global magnet for AI talent through strategic partnerships and infrastructure development.

Industry Transformation Already Underway

The report identifies routine roles such as quality assurance engineers and Level 1 support agents as particularly vulnerable to rapid automation. However, it also highlights emerging opportunities in specialized areas including Ethical AI Specialists, AI Trainers, Sentiment Analysts, and AI DevOps Engineers.

According to the findings, Indian AI talent demand is expected to grow from 800,000-850,000 to over 1.25 million professionals by 2026, representing a 25% compound annual growth rate while existing talent pools are expanding at only 15%.

Debjani Ghosh, Distinguished Fellow at NITI Aayog and former president of industry body NASSCOM, emphasized the urgency of coordinated action. “The difference between job loss and job creation depends squarely on the choices we make today,” she said. “This roadmap provides a clear, actionable path to ensure India becomes the global epicenter of AI talent by 2035”.

The report was developed by NITI Aayog’s Frontier Tech Hub in collaboration with NASSCOM and Boston Consulting Group, with input from industry leaders at companies including IBM, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, and others.